Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for global smartphone sales.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026-2028. The investment bank cited persistently rising component costs and the growing share of premium devices, whose sales are relatively less sensitive to price changes, as the reasons behind the decision.

Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast by 1 million units, to 1.1 billion units. Its 2027 estimate was reduced by 8 million units, to 1.2 billion, while the 2028 forecast was lowered by 0.2 million units, also to 1.2 billion units.

Under the updated forecasts, smartphone shipments are expected to fall 10% year-over-year in 2026, decline 2% in 2027, and grow 2% in 2028. The previous forecasts were -10%, +3% and +1%, respectively.

Despite the lower unit forecast, Goldman Sachs raised its estimate for the value of the smartphone market. The bank projects that total market value will grow 8% to $624 billion in 2026, 5% to $655 billion in 2027, and 3% to $674 billion in 2028.

The growth in market value is driven mainly by rising memory chip prices and increasing demand for premium smartphones priced above $600. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs expects the trend of consumers opting for more expensive devices to continue, even as the overall number of units sold in the market grows more slowly.

The bank also holds a positive view on the outlook for foldable smartphone adoption and expects that new models entering the market will support growth in this category, including Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo. According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, foldable devices' share of the global smartphone market will be 3.1% in 2026, 5.7% in 2027, and 6.5% in 2028.

However, these forecasts are lower than previous estimates, which stood at 3.6%, 5.9% and 6.8%, respectively. Under Goldman Sachs' new estimate, this corresponds to roughly 35 million, 66 million and 77 million foldable smartphones — 14%, 4% and 5% below the previous forecasts, respectively.

Beyond foldables, Goldman Sachs expects the market's "premiumization" trend to continue. New form factors and additional features, the bank believes, will create new use cases for consumers and improve the overall experience.

Other market forecasts for the foldable segment also differ. For example, TrendForce expects global shipments of approximately 20.2 million foldable smartphones in 2026 and forecasts that the iPhone Duo will ship roughly 5 million units.