Tesla beat its third-quarter vehicle delivery forecast

Tesla exceeded Wall Street expectations with its third-quarter vehicle deliveries. In July-September, the company delivered 486,532 vehicles to customers, compared with analysts' average forecast of 456,896 units. The company's results were particularly helped by a recovery in European sales, which partially offset relatively weak demand in the US and China.

Following the release of the results, Tesla's shares rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading. However, as of the last trading day, the company's shares were down more than 21% since the beginning of the year.

The improvement in European sales partially compensated for reduced demand resulting from the elimination of tax incentives for electric vehicles in the US and intensifying competition in China. In the European market, Tesla's registrations rose by approximately 43.3% in the first eight months of the year, exceeding the overall electric vehicle market's growth of 38.8%.

One notable example of the recovery in Europe is France, where Tesla's Model Y remained among the best-selling models in September as well. Tesla's registrations in the country rose 61.9% year-over-year in September. Growth was also recorded in other European markets, including Spain, Sweden and Norway.

Meanwhile, exports from Tesla's Shanghai factory nearly doubled in July and August. In the Chinese market, however, the company continues to operate under intense competitive pressure, particularly from local manufacturers.

The third-quarter results also suggest that Tesla's core automotive business may be entering a stabilization phase following two consecutive years of declining annual sales. To avoid another annual decline, the company will need to deliver at least 311,448 vehicles in the fourth quarter.

There were also positive demand signals at the start of the quarter. Tesla's CFO Vaibhav Taneja said in July that the company ended the second quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023.

Despite the improvement in vehicle deliveries, investor attention is also focused beyond Tesla's automotive business. The company is increasingly developing artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, robotaxis and humanoid robots. In Europe, the gradual rollout of Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is seen as an additional factor that could influence demand.