Analysts raised their oil price forecasts for 2026

Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts. In their assessment, disruptions to exports from Gulf countries amid the Middle East conflict will outweigh risks tied to rising demand. According to the updated forecast, the average price of Brent crude next year will be nearly $90 per barrel.

According to a September survey of 30 economists and analysts, the average Brent price in 2026 will reach $89.05, while US WTI crude will reach $83.90. Brent forecasts range from $77.27 to $97.60.

Some analysts believe the market is increasingly doubtful that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will fully recover in the near term. Under such conditions, a significant portion of the supply deficit is being balanced out through previously accumulated oil reserves.

According to Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, the market should not expect the conflict to be resolved within the next three to six months. He noted that if the confrontation escalates rather than de-escalates, there will be risks of oil prices rising higher than currently forecast.

HSBC's base-case scenario assumes only a gradual improvement in shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bank's assessment, the strait's throughput capacity will remain structurally constrained, and oil flows will recover slowly from current levels. Moreover, they will still fall significantly short of the pre-conflict level of approximately 19–20 million barrels per day.

According to Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil exports — including so-called "dark exports," in which vessels turn off their location transponders — reached 23.3 million barrels per day last week. The bank reports that export volumes doubled in September, matching the 2025 average.

China's Oil Reserves Are Declining

For analysts, China's oil reserves remain one of the key uncertainties for next year. The world's largest crude oil importer built up substantial reserves before the conflict began, and during the confrontation it drew on them to reduce its need for purchases on the international market.

However, this trend has recently shifted. China's oil imports have risen over the past two months, reaching nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, though this figure remains below historical average levels.

According to Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, China's oil reserves are currently one of the market's key unknowns. He noted that the volume of reserves turned out to be much larger than expectations at the start of the conflict, but they are not infinite and will not be able to meet demand throughout the entire winter. Accordingly, Tabarelli expects China to further increase its oil purchases.