Skip to main content
Traders' Hub
Back to blog
Analysis

GEL outlook for 2026: rates, remittances, and the tourist season

Nika LomidzeApril 28, 20267 min read

The lari is a small currency off most traders' radar — but for any Georgian business or investor, it is the price that matters. Three factors drive it:

1. NBG refinancing rate

The "cost of holding" the lari. The higher the rate, the more attractive lari-denominated deposits become. The NBG cut cautiously in 2025; 2026 will depend on inflation.

2. Remittances

Money sent home from Russia, Italy, the US, and elsewhere. NBG's monthly remittance data often moves USD/GEL. Sanctions and geopolitical shifts can flip this channel quickly.

3. The tourist season

Summer is the lari's heartbeat. June–September FX inflows offset Georgia's structural trade deficit. A weak season means a weak lari.

What to watch

  • Every NBG meeting (schedule in our economic calendar)
  • Monthly remittance data
  • Tourist arrival statistics
  • The global DXY — a strong dollar pressures small currencies

A careful conclusion

A GEL outlook is not "BUY" or "SELL." It is a scenario map — and our economic calendar gives you the live data to fill it in.

Related articles

StockMay 17, 20265 min read

Nanobiotix presents early lung cancer trial data at ESTRO

PARIS and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - Nanobiotix (Euronext:NANO, NASDAQ: NBTX) announced today the presentation of initial data from the CONVERGE study, a Johnson & Johnson-sponsored Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) for patients with stage 3 inoperable non-small cell lung cancer.

რატი ქირიაRead
US and Israel prepare potential renewal of military mission against Iran- report
AnalysisMay 17, 20266 min read

US and Israel prepare potential renewal of military mission against Iran- report

Investing.com -- Israel and the United States are actively advancing military preparations to potentially resume coordinated attacks against Iran as early as next week, according to a report first published by The Times of Israel, citing Middle Eastern and U.S. officials.

რატი ქირიაRead
MacroMay 12, 20266 min read

How NFP shapes the Fed's path — and what it means for your trades

The first Friday of each month is one of the most important days in US markets. Here's what NFP is and how currencies, gold, and stocks react to it.

Rati KiriaRead
GEL outlook for 2026: rates, remittances, and the tourist season — Traders' Hub