JPMorgan Downgrades Nike Stock Recommendation

JPMorgan downgraded Nike's stock from Neutral to Underweight and lowered its price target from $47 to $40. According to the bank's assessment, the company's current strategic changes will place pressure on financial results for longer than expected.

According to analyst Matthew Boss, Nike's "Win Now" program will impact earnings through the second half of fiscal 2027 and into fiscal 2028.

JPMorgan highlights two key areas:

• Restructuring of the online platform in China starting January 2027, which the company estimates will result in the loss of more than $1 billion in annual revenue in the region.
• A store closure program in North America, which will continue to have a negative impact on sales through the first half of fiscal 2028.

Against this backdrop, JPMorgan cut its fiscal 2027 EPS forecast to $1.55, approximately 10% below market consensus, and lowered its fiscal 2028 forecast to $1.72, which lags consensus by roughly 20%. According to the bank's assessment, 2028 will be a year of stabilization rather than growth.

JPMorgan also notes that the global athletic apparel and footwear market is gradually maturing as a category, which is why it reduced its growth expectations for the North American market to 3%. Additionally, the bank expects Nike to present a three-year plan to achieve double-digit operating margins through fiscal 2030 at its investor day scheduled for November.