Bernstein Sees AI-Powered Opportunity in Shopify Stock — Price Target at $160

Bernstein has initiated coverage on Shopify shares with an "Outperform" rating and set a price target of $160, implying more than 26% upside from the stock's current level. According to analyst Mark Shmulik, risks tied to artificial intelligence development will ultimately expand Shopify's market rather than shrink it.

Shmulik called Shopify an "AI optimist." He noted that the company faces challenges such as agentic commerce, new AI-based alternatives, and "vibe coding," but argued that these very technological shifts are lowering the barriers to creating new businesses and expanding Shopify's potential market.

The analyst compared AI-related risks to "a storm in a teacup," noting that AI chatbots are actively using Shopify's product catalogs. At the same time, merchants still have an incentive to keep transactions within Shopify's payment system, since it gives them an edge in security and fraud management.

Shmulik noted that the hype around agentic payments quickly faded after the initial launch of ChatGPT Checkout came in weaker than expected.

Shopify holds roughly 14% of the US e-commerce market. More than half of the platform's merchants are already based outside the US, and about 50% of the growth in total gross merchandise value comes from outside North America. The company's international, physical retail, and B2B sales channels together account for more than 60% of total trading volume.

Bernstein forecasts that Shopify's global GMV will grow at an average annual rate of about 24% between 2025 and 2030. Over the same period, annual revenue growth is expected to be around 25%, while free cash flow (FCF) growth is projected at about 32%.

The broker's investment thesis rests on a hierarchy: FCF growth > revenue growth > GMV growth > market growth.

Shmulik also noted that Shopify's gross margin fell by 230 basis points year-over-year in 2025, driven mainly by the payments business, including the impact of the PayPal partnership and reduced fees from large enterprise clients. Still, he believes the company has significant potential to monetize its AI tools. The number of active stores using Shopify's Sidekick AI assistant quadrupled year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026.

Shopify shares currently trade at about 9 times projected 2027 revenue and about 45 times projected 2027 free cash flow. This is below the company's historical range of 10-12 times forward revenue and roughly 70 times FCF.

"Ignore the noise — this is your AI-powered entry opportunity," Shmulik writes.