Goldman Sachs: AI spending to reach $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027

According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, annual spending on AI-related hardware and intellectual property will reach $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027. The investment bank estimates that this figure will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026.

"Artificial intelligence will remain the main driver of business investment growth in 2027," Goldman Sachs states.

The forecast was published amid growing market expectations that higher borrowing costs and stricter investor scrutiny of corporate spending could slow the pace of investment in AI infrastructure. This is particularly significant given that technology companies are increasingly financing their expansion with borrowed funds.

At the same time, the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections held earlier this month in the US has raised questions about the possibility of tighter regulation of data center construction. However, Goldman Sachs assesses that the election results pose only limited risks to AI investment.

The Impact of AI Investment on the US Economy

According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, AI-related investment will boost capital expenditure growth by 5.3 percentage points in 2027, including through investment in the semiconductor sector. It will also contribute an additional 0.6 percentage points to US GDP growth.

The investment bank explains that official business investment statistics do not fully capture spending on semiconductors. In addition, much of the equipment needed for data processing is imported, meaning its value is not reflected in net GDP figures.

Excluding investment in semiconductors, AI-related spending will boost capital investment growth by 4.3 percentage points in 2027, while contributing only 0.2 percentage points to US economic growth.

Overall, Goldman Sachs forecasts quarterly business investment growth of 8% in the US in 2027. This figure is nearly double the analysts' average expectation of 4.2%.