The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.1%

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for 2026 global economic growth from 3% to 3.1%. For 2027, it expects growth of 3.4%. The economy is being supported by large investments in AI-related projects, which partly offset the impact of the war in the Middle East and higher energy prices.

According to the IMF, the Strait of Hormuz should reopen by March, with shipping expected to return to pre-war levels by October 2027. If the war continues and oil prices exceed $130 per barrel in early 2027, global economic growth next year would be roughly 0.5 percentage points lower.

The Fund also cites a possible slowdown in AI investment as another risk. If companies fail to realize the expected returns from this technology and cut back on investment, prices in financial markets could also fall. The IMF estimates that in such a scenario, by 2028 the global economy would be 1.1% smaller than expected, and the US economy 1.8% smaller.

Source: Investing.com