Morgan Stanley: The foldable iPhone will be Apple's most significant launch in recent years

Apple's first foldable iPhone could generate approximately $14 billion in revenue for the company in the December quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank estimates that the presentation planned for September 9 will be Apple's most significant product launch since the iPhone X.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring stated that the foldable model represents the biggest change to the iPhone's form factor since the iPhone X.

The bank expects strong initial demand alongside constrained supply. According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, Apple will produce approximately 7-8 million foldable iPhones in the second half of 2026, while production over the course of the first product cycle could reach 20 million units.

Morgan Stanley also believes the new model's launch will be an important test of Apple's ability to raise prices. The bank expects the company to implement the most significant price increases in recent years across several iPhone models.

According to Woodring, rising NAND and DRAM memory costs will push up the price of Pro models by more than $200 year-over-year. In addition, one of the key upgrades expected for the iPhone 18 Pro is the transition to TSMC's 2-nanometer process technology, which will help improve on-device AI capabilities.

Morgan Stanley believes Apple is currently more focused on securing sufficient components than on finding buyers. However, limited supply of memory components could constrain the initial production volume of the foldable iPhone.

Woodring believes the September 9 event will not be an ordinary presentation. For the first time in 15 years, the event will not be led by Apple CEO Tim Cook — the company's new CEO, John Ternus, will unveil Apple's first major iPhone form-factor change in nearly a decade.

The event is also expected to feature the long-awaited iPhone Fold, alongside what could be the most significant iPhone price increase yet.