Morgan Stanley: Canada Cannot Fully Meet US Aluminum Demand

Canada is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum to the United States, but even if it were to send its entire production to the American market, it would still be unable to fully meet U.S. demand. This is the assessment of Morgan Stanley.

In the first half of 2026, the U.S. purchased 1.68 million tons of aluminum from abroad. Of this, 1.16 million tons—approximately 68%—came from Canada. Accordingly, Canada supplied roughly 68% of American imports. During the same period, Canada produced nearly 1.6 million tons of aluminum in total, which corresponds to approximately 95% of U.S. import requirements.

Morgan Stanley also assessed a possible decision by the Trump administration to reduce the tariff on Canadian aluminum from 50% to 25%. According to the bank's forecast, in such a case, Canadian companies would find it easier to sell more aluminum in the U.S. and would send less to Europe. However, the U.S. would still need to purchase aluminum from other countries, where the 50% tariff remains in effect. Additionally, the U.S. meets approximately 80% of its aluminum consumption through imports.

Source: Investing.com