Why hasn't the price of oil exceeded $100?

Oil exports from the Middle East have declined significantly, though Brent crude prices remain below $100. Part of the market shortfall is being offset by increased supply from other countries and China's large reserves.

Before the outbreak of the Iran war, Middle Eastern countries exported about 18 million barrels of oil per day; this figure has now dropped to around 11 million barrels. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also been disrupted.

Nevertheless, the US, Canada and Guyana are increasing production. China holds reserves of about 1.17 billion barrels and has also reduced its seaborne oil purchases in recent months.

The market situation remains tense. Several banks have already raised their oil price forecasts. Morgan Stanley expects Brent to average $100 in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs has also raised its December forecast, suggesting that shipping-related disruptions in the Middle East will continue into 2027.

Source: Reuters