Oppenheimer Warns of High Valuation on Apple Shares - Growth Potential Is Limited

Investment bank Oppenheimer has maintained its "Perform" rating on Apple shares. According to the analysts' assessment, the company's high market valuation creates significant expectations among investors regarding its results, meaning that even a slight deterioration in financial indicators could negatively affect the share price.

Analyst Martin Yang forecasts that Apple's fourth fiscal quarter revenue will reach $112.9 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) will reach $1.96. Both figures fall short of the average analyst forecast, which stands at $113.4 billion and $1.99, respectively.

However, according to Oppenheimer's assessment, the key issue for investors is the company's financial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Yang forecasts that earnings per share during this period will be $8.91, approximately 7% below market consensus.

The analyst cites a slowdown in iPhone sales growth, challenges in the services segment, and rising memory component costs as factors hindering growth. According to him, Apple shares are trading near one of the highest forward P/E valuations of the past 15 years, which demands more sustained revenue growth from the company.

iPhone Upgrade Cycle Falls Short of Expectations

Of the nine sources surveyed as part of Oppenheimer's research, seven advised customers to delay purchasing the new Pro models. Meanwhile, according to Counterpoint data, global iPhone Pro series sales rose 3.1% during the first three weeks of sales, though they fell 4% in the US and 27% in Japan.

According to Yang's assessment, there is currently insufficient evidence that consumers are replacing their smartphones faster than expected.

Oppenheimer forecasts iPhone Duo shipments of 5-6 million units in 2026 and 15-20 million units in fiscal year 2027. Analysts expect the new device could drive approximately 6% growth in iPhone revenue. However, there is also a risk that the Duo could draw some customers away from the Pro and Pro Max models, reducing sales in that segment.